Applying Operations Research to Criminal Justice
This research applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)—a conventional operations research tool for managerial decisions—to police eyewitness identification procedures, with the goal of reducing wrongful convictions.
The Problem
According to the Innocence Project, eyewitness misidentification is the number one cause of wrongful convictions. The National Institute of Justice previously recommended sequential photo presentation (one at a time) over simultaneous display, yet improvements remained modest and situational.
Methodology
Dr. Chung and colleague Enrique Mu conducted experiments with over 100 Carlow University students, simulating police line-ups presenting two suspects at a time using pairwise presentation methods grounded in AHP principles.
Key Findings
The pairwise approach demonstrated promise for:
Improved Accuracy
Improving eyewitness identification accuracy beyond what traditional sequential or simultaneous methods achieve.
New Performance Metrics
Generating performance metrics unavailable through conventional identification methods.
Quantified Reliability
Enabling law enforcement to quantify eyewitness reliability more objectively.
Preliminary results were encouraging, though the researchers acknowledged the need for larger sample sizes for robust effect measurements.
Presentations & Dissemination
- 2012 — Teachers College, Columbia University
- Summer 2013 — International Symposium of AHP/ANP, Kuala Lumpur
- Summer 2013 — Society for Applied Research in Memory and Cognition X, Rotterdam
Funding & Support
Supported by seed grants (2012) and signature project funding (2013) from the Grace Ann Geibel Institute for Justice and Social Responsibility at Carlow University, with research assistance from alumna Jennifer Bourne.
Collaborators
Tingting (Rachel) Chung
Lead researcher
Enrique Mu
Co-investigator, AHP methodology expert